Modeling the Cost of Population Aging in Iran.
نویسندگان
چکیده
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE The decline in fertility rates and the increase in life expectancy have changed the demographic structure of many countries substantially and entail long-term economic implications too. Population aging has adverse effects on countries' economies, especially with respect to the social security system and the welfare structure. METHODS Given the importance of the phenomenon of population aging and the increased longevity in recent decades, the present study was conducted to address the welfare implications of population aging in Iran during a span of 150 years using the Overlapping Generations (OLG) model. RESULTS Examining the effect of reduced population growth or population aging on economic welfare, labor supply, capital assets and government expenditure during the span of 150 years suggested a decline in economic welfare in the early years; however, the rate of decline slowed down toward the end of the period; the same finding also applies to labor supply. Overall, population aging had the greatest impact on capital assets. CONCLUSION Population aging can cause a drastic transition in consumption and saving behaviors. Labor markets can also undergo similar transitions in their labor supply and have implications for labor productivity. The combination of these changes affects economic growth and welfare. The results of the study suggest that supporting the workforce and employing the immigrant population in the labor market can help reduce the adverse consequences of the phenomenon of population aging.
منابع مشابه
A Survey of Health Services Cost Patterns in Iranian Elderly: A Systematic Review
Background and Objective: The Hospital expenditures and the growing the elderly population had an important role in increasing the health system expenditures. The purpose of this study was to determine the cost pattern of health services in Iranian elderly people. Materials and Methods: All descriptive and analytic studies done regarding the cost-benefit model of health services in the elderly...
متن کاملThe Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth of Iran through the fertility rate and life expectancy (Overlapping Generation Model Approach)
Abstract Introduction: population aging refers to an age imbalance of the population so that the ratio of young population decreases while aged population grows. Decrease in fertility rate and growing life expectancy are the two key factors in emergence of population aging. The macro economy effects of population aging on economic growth was examined based on the effects of two factors includ...
متن کاملThe Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth of Iran through the fertility rate and life expectancy (Overlapping Generation Model Approach)
Abstract Introduction: population aging refers to an age imbalance of the population so that the ratio of young population decreases while aged population grows. Decrease in fertility rate and growing life expectancy are the two key factors in emergence of population aging. The macro economy effects of population aging on economic growth was examined based on the effects of two factors includ...
متن کاملThe Phenomenon of Population Aging in Iran
Elham Fathi Statistical Center of Iran Abstract. In the past, few people reached old age, but in todaychr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s world, advances in technology and health have allowed people to live longer and die at an older age, so Now more people can experience aging. On the other hand, since almost all countries of the world have gone through or are going through a period of high fertilit...
متن کاملDoes Population Aging Affect Income Inequality in Iran?
Objectives: The aging of the population in recent years in Iran has raised concerns among policymakers in various fields. Some economic theories consider the changes in the age structure and population aging as one of the important issues affecting the income inequality of societies. This study aims to assess the effect of population aging on the income inequality in Iran. Methods & Materials:...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Global journal of health science
دوره 8 11 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2016